futures

What are the factors that affect the futures price of soybean oil?

1. Soybean supply:

As a downstream product of soybean processing, the supply of soybean directly determines the supply of soybean oil.

There are two main sources of soybean, one is domestic soybean and the other is imported soybean.

(1) Domestic soybean supply. Northeast China and Huanghuai area are the main soybean producing areas, and the harvest season is usually from September to October every year, and the months after harvest are the concentrated period of soybean supply. In recent years, China’s soybean output has been maintained at about 16 million tons, of which nearly half is used for crushing.

(2) international market supply. China is currently the largest soybean importer in the world. In recent years, China has imported more than 20 million tons of soybeans from the United States, Brazil and Argentina every year.

2. Soybean oil output:

The current output of soybean oil is a variable, which is subject to factors such as soybean supply, soybean crushing income and production cost. Generally speaking, when other factors remain unchanged, there is an obvious inverse relationship between the output and price of soybean oil. The output of soybean oil increases and the price is relatively low. Soybean oil production decreased and the price was relatively high.

3. Import and export volume of soybean oil:

With the rapid development of China’s economy and the continuous improvement of people’s living standards, the consumption of soybean oil has increased year by year, and its import volume has also increased year by year. The influence of changes in soybean oil imports on domestic soybean oil prices is constantly increasing. After 2006, with the cancellation of soybean oil import quota, soybean oil markets at home and abroad will be integrated. In this way, the influence of soybean oil import quantity on domestic soybean oil price will be further enhanced.

4. Stock of soybean oil:

Soybean oil inventory is an important part of supply, and the amount of inventory reflects the tension of supply. In most cases, the shortage of inventory leads to the price increase, while the abundance of inventory leads to the price decrease. Because soybean oil is not easy to be preserved for a long time, once the stock of soybean oil increases, the price of soybean oil tends to go down.

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