originate Huijing Ye Tan finance
Wang Wu threw a philosophical question in the exchange group of the real competition yesterday. Why didn’t the cars collide when we were driving on the road?
People in the group were asked, and they were crazy about asking questions.
Wang Wu continued, because when we are driving on the road, we will stop when we see a red light, turn when we see a curve, and avoid when we see an oncoming car.
People in the group are even more confused. Art Wang Wu, what do you mean?
Wang Wu replied in the group,Why don’t we sometimes "stop", "turn" and "avoid" when doing business? Why is it so hard to do it?
On April 21st, Black Friday was staged in China stock market, and there was a 100-share limit.
Judging from the trend, the Shanghai Composite Index weakened from the opening price of 3,364 points, and unilaterally fell to the closing price of 3,301.26 points throughout the day, with a decline rate of 1.95%, close to 2%.
From the graphic point of view, a big yinxian line of the Shanghai Composite Index reversed the Zhongyang line on April 17, showing a sharp decline.
In this regard, some people may think that the stock market is about to start a wave.Adjustment of midline levelMaybe some people will think that this is a once-in-a-lifetime event.Call back and get on the busOpportunity.
Some people are bearish on the market outlook, and some people are bullish, so there will be differences and there will be transactions.
Personally, I don’t shy away from my own point of view, bearish on the growth track and look at the multi-value track.
March 28EvacuationIn this paper, it has been considered that the concept of ChatGPT with an increase of over 100% presents a largefoamAnd made countermeasures.
At the same time, I also think that the future market of the stock market is mainly in the value track.February 23 rdState-owned enterprises outperformed the national GDP growth rate.April 18thOnce again, the importance of the value track was expounded.
Figure: Net buying status of foreign capital Source: Straight flush
Why does the market have different views of bullish, bearish and volatile?
Because there are a thousand readers, there are a thousand Hamlets.
Everyone’s different growth environment and social experience will inevitably bringDifferent world views, mapped to the stock market, will produce different trading views.
Views are very important, but more important than trading views is to stick to your own ability circle.
Repeat the three stages of ChatGPT market to explain the logic of sticking to one’s ability circle in the structural market in the stock market.
The hazy stage of the market,Some people are optimistic, buying and holding artificial intelligence to make profits. At the same time, some people are not optimistic, and they also make profits by doing other things that they are optimistic about, such asChina Software, Taiji SharesDomestic software sector, etc.
The development stage of the market,Some people began to be optimistic, chasing high and holding artificial intelligence for the first time, and then quickly taking profits and making profits.
The fishtail stage of the market,People who were initially optimistic began to bearish and take profit positions.Profits are safe.
Fish tail market,There are also many funds for flips, such as the funds for buying domestic software in the early days. They are not eager to catch up with the market, but they have made a counter-pumping market after the plunge, that is, Longhuitou Scenic Spot, for example360, Inspur InformationSuch as artificial intelligence plate.
Obviously, everyone has different judgments and opinions on the ChatGPT market, but they all earned profits in their own ability circle in the ups and downs of the market.
That is to say, everyone chooses a different way to go to Rome, but as long as they stick to it and don’t go upside down repeatedly, all roads will eventually lead to Rome.
This truth can also be used to answer Wang Wu’s philosophical questions above.
Trading is analogous to driving. When we are driving on the road, if we are in a hurry to do something, we may run a red light, such as going to the hospital, rushing to work, rushing to the airport and so on.
If you suddenly enter a strange place, you may not turn, such as entering the forest, desert, foggy weather, etc.
If you are not in the state when driving, you may not avoid coming cars, such as fatigue driving, drunk driving, sending text messages, etc.
In fact, these "what if scenarios" are things outside our ability circle, and most of the time we don’t have accidents when driving, because we are doing things within our ability circle.
Further divergently speaking, some people’s ability circle is riding a bicycle, some people are driving a car, and some people are flying a plane. They should guard their own ability circle so that traffic accidents will not occur.
Therefore, the viewpoint of ups and downs in China stock market is of course important, but what is more important than the viewpoint is not to be greedy or envious, to foster strengths and avoid weaknesses, to stick to one’s own ability circle, and to earn profits that one can earn.
China’s stock market is a barometer of the economy, and its ups and downs also imply the two worlds of economic inflation and deflation.
On April 21st, the China stock market made a big correction, among which the leading sectors were mainly Chatgpt industrial chain, including big data models and semiconductor chips, which led the gains in the previous period and attracted more funds.
On the other side,The national defense military industry has shown obvious resistance to falling, even rising against the trend.At the same time, the performance of China’s characteristic valuation sector (China Special Valuation) is better than the market average.
In other words, on Black Friday, on the one hand, the value track resisted or even rose against the trend, and on the other hand, the growth track led the decline or even fell to a large limit.
It is worth noting that not only the China stock market has experienced the ups and downs, but also the structural market.
Real estate market,There is a long-lost Xiaoyangchun market in the core areas of first-and second-tier cities, while the third-and fourth-tier cities are still sluggish.
Commodity market,The market of black plate of screw thread and iron ore continued to fall, while the market of energy and chemical industry and live pigs obviously resisted falling or even rose.
In addition, the prices of automobiles, household appliances, photovoltaics and other fields are falling, reflecting the deflationary pressure of the economy; However, the prices of services such as catering, haircuts and oil fees are rising, reflecting the inflationary pressure of the economy.
The deflationary pressure of large-scale enterprises and the inflationary pressure of small and micro enterprises are also reflected in the first quarter of 2023.GDP growth rateGo.
China’s GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 4.5%The growth rate of the secondary industry dominated by large-scale enterprises is 3.3%, which is lower than the average growth rate of GDP; The growth rate of the tertiary industry dominated by small and micro enterprises is 5.4%, which is higher than the average growth rate of GDP (see the figure below).
The whole economic market is half flame and half seawater.
All of the above fully shows that the economic probability of China, including the stock market, has entered a differentiated market.So, the stock marketUnder the general trend that the whole economy is divided, the differentiation will gradually become the norm.
That is to say, the risk of China investors chasing up and down will be further amplified, on the contrary, the cost performance of China investors buying at low prices will be further strengthened.
Figure: GDP growth rate of service industry and industry Source: wind
Finally, I personally think that we can have divided views on the trends of stocks, even real estate, gold and bonds.
However, we all have to implement our own views and realize the realization within our own ability circle.
For example, we all know that Wenzhou real estate speculators are very profitable, but is that our ability circle? For example, we all know that the stock market is very profitable, but is that our ability circle?
Just because others can watch more and do more doesn’t mean we can watch more and do more. We can watch more and stay put, and then do more when we trigger our own ability circle signal.
Everyone’s ability circle is different, and these signals are naturally different. It can be that the golden fork is long, the Brin channel breaks up and goes long, and after breaking through the 60-year moving average, it will step back and go long, and continuously pull back to the golden section to buy long.
These signals can also be that the first quarter report is in line with expectations, the price falls to the lower end of the enterprise valuation, and the marginal variables in the enterprise performance are long.
Personally, I feel that the adjustment of China’s economy, including the stock market, real estate, gold, bonds, etc., will also have constant structural differentiation, and the track style will rotate.
We should cherish more what we are good at, persist in fostering strengths and avoiding weaknesses, and stick to our own ability circle. Don’t go astray, let alone join in the fun outside your own ability circle.
(Disclaimer: This article is an objective analysis of the public information of Ye Tan Finance and Economics, and does not constitute investment advice. Please do not use it as the basis for investment.)
