CCTV News:Some people say that in the past week, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a bad time.
On the 3 rd local time, a Russian fighter plane was shot down in Syria; A few days ago, it was repeatedly attacked by the United States. The US Treasury Department expanded its sanctions against Russia. The United States also issued a "Kremlin report", which blacklisted a number of Russian political and business elites. The nuclear situation assessment report just released by the United States is also full of anti-Russian tendencies. Seeing that the PyeongChang Winter Olympics is just around the corner, a large number of Russian athletes have been deprived of their qualifications, and Putin himself has to bluntly say that he has not protected his own athletes … … This incident is really disturbing. How should Putin deal with it?
Russia will hold a presidential election next month. Will Putin’s campaign be disturbed?
Russian warplanes were shot down in Syria. Is Putin’s anti-terrorism fully upgraded?
On the 3rd local time, a Russian Su -25 fighter was shot down by a portable air defense missile while carrying out a ground attack mission in Idlib province in northwest Syria. The fighter pilot successfully ejected skydiving, but then theThe pilot was killed in the crossfire. (Click for details: A Russian fighter plane was shot down and the pilot was killed)
This time, the Russian fighter plane was shot down by extremist organizations. The key point of the problem is who provided the portable missiles used by extremist organizations. The Russian side has said that man-portable missiles come from outside Syria, which gives the outside world a lot of imagination. According to the analysis, it is estimated that Russia will not make a big move until the source of man-portable missiles is clarified. In addition, from a macro point of view, this fighter plane was shot down, just俄罗斯在叙利亚战场上的一个小小的挫折，对俄罗斯不会产生太大压力.
事实上，俄罗斯碰到过比这次更大的挫折，比如，2015年11月，一架俄罗斯苏-24战斗机被土耳其击落，一名俄罗斯飞行员死亡。当时，俄罗斯方面并没有采取太极端的动作，相反到了第二年，土耳其政变后，因为及时向土耳其总统伸出援手，赢得了和土耳其关系缓和的机会。在叙利亚的军事存在本身，就是俄罗斯外交运作的一个坚强支撑。普京可以拿自己在叙利亚境内一定实力的军事存在，来和西方国家或者周边大国做外交上的交换。
总体来看，在反恐的道路上，普京既不会减缓，也不会加大。
一方面，俄罗斯确实在真心反恐，毕竟恐怖主义直接威胁到俄罗斯的领土主权完整。但是让俄罗斯拿更多的钱，牺牲士兵等去中东充当“警察”也不太可能，因为更多的资源还是要用在国内经济的发展上。所以加大规模进行军事打击，对普京来说也没太大好处.
另外，俄罗斯在中东反恐，其实是与美国争夺在中东的话语权。在叙利亚战场上，俄罗斯取得了比美国亮眼的成绩，所以借反恐，普京赢得了不少国际声誉，这必然也会提升国内老百姓对普京的好感.
In the process of the war on terrorism, we can also reap some economic benefits, that is, selling arms.. Now arms export is a pillar industry of Russian economy. Therefore, through the war on terrorism, we can let the outside world see the level of modern Russian arms manufacturing.
Therefore,The shooting down of this fighter plane will not fundamentally affect Putin’s anti-terrorism scale. If we can come up with real evidence to determine who provided the portable missiles in the hands of extremist organizations, it may even become a bargaining chip.
To what extent does the "new move" of US sanctions affect Russia?
In addition to counter-terrorism, Russia also directly confronts the United States, that is, the United States continues to increase sanctions against Russia.
On January 30, local time, Putin also exploded "swearing" because of an "unprecedented" move taken by the United States against Russia.
As part of the bill to implement sanctions against Russia, the US Treasury Department released a list of Russian "senior politicians" and "economic oligarchs" on January 29th local time.
This list of 210 people, except for Putin’s name, ranges from senior government officials such as Prime Minister Medvedev and Foreign Minister Lavrov to business tycoons such as bank governors, metal industry giants and presidents of state-owned natural gas monopolies.Catch all the leading figures in Russia..
For the list concocted by the US Treasury Department, there is an uproar in Russia. Some accused that "the United States declared war on Russia on a large scale", while others criticized that this move "almost means the breakdown of Russia-US relations".Putin, on the other hand, quoted a proverb as saying ironically: A group of dogs keep barking, but business travel is still ok.
Despite the fierce rhetoric, Putin does not seem to be anxious, evenJoking, he regretted that he was not included in the list of the United States.Putin can still be so "talking and laughing", presumably he feels that this sanctions list will not bring much substantial impact.
After all, it is normal for the United States to suppress Russia. The outside world thinks that,It may also be a helpless move for the United States to keep adding sanctions against Russia, because the United States can’t think of a more effective way.What’s more, after being sanctioned by the United States for many years, Russia’s immunity has also improved, and it is constantly adjusting its living conditions under sanctions. So some analysts believe thatDespite the introduction of so many sanctions, Russia and the United States still maintain a relatively balanced state.
Revocation of Olympic ban Putin: a plain view
As for the disqualification of some Russian athletes from participating in the Pyeongchang Olympic Games because of the "doping" problem,Not really.Will cause too much interference to Putin..
The International Olympic Committee previously banned Russia from participating in the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics in the form of a delegation on the grounds of "systematic manipulation of anti-doping work". Therefore, at the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, which will open on February 9, only 169 Russian athletes will participate as neutral athletes, and the Russian flag and national anthem will not appear in the Winter Olympics.
"Forgive us for not protecting you from the doping scandal." On January 31st, Putin made a touching remark to Russian athletes who are going to Pyeongchang to participate in the Winter Olympics.
At the same time,Putin also ordered another "substitute competition" for Russian athletes who were banned from participating in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.
Although it is impossible to participate in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, Russia is not completely banned in the field of sports.For example, the 2018 World Cup will continue to be held in Russia.By then, don’t western countries really go to Russia to participate in the World Cup? What’s more, a few days ago, court of arbitration for sports announced that due to insufficient evidence, 28 Russian athletes who had previously been banned were able to regain their "freedom", while 11 other athletes who had been confirmed to use stimulants were also banned from participating in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics. At the same time, the International Olympic Committee said that those 28 Russian athletes who had been disqualified could participate in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics.
Putin said: "Of course we should be happy. This decision proves our position. Most of our athletes are honest. But we can’t be too excited and need to treat it lightly. "
△ On February 1st, car enthusiasts in Kaliningrad, Russia, used their cars to spell out the shape of the Olympic rings to express their support for Russian athletes who are about to participate in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.
Continued suppression by the West will help Putin win support.
A series of bad worries have brought a lot of troubles to Russia, and it is estimated that Putin is also annoyed enough. But on the whole, the cruel external environment will not pose a threat to Putin’s presidential election on March 18, and may even help Putin to further gather people’s hearts.Continued suppression by western countries can stimulate the patriotic enthusiasm of Russian people.. After successive rounds of severe sanctions, Putin’s popular support rate has risen instead of falling, and his ruling foundation has not been shaken.
With the approaching of the election schedule, Putin’s support rate is far away. According to earlier reports,74% of Russians have said that they are ready to vote for Putin in the presidential election.
On February 2nd, Russia held a military parade to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the victory of the Battle of Stalingrad, which was not routine. Holding it before the general election can boost the morale of the entire Russian nation and win support and popular support for Putin.
Putin told supporters this week: "Never mind what others say, just do what you have to do." At present, public opinion at home and abroad generally believes that Putin’s re-election is almost certain.For Putin, the greater anxiety may be how to improve the domestic economy and employment rate after the election, and how to fulfill the promise of people’s livelihood and well-being made to the Russian people that year.
This article was written with the assistance of CCTV special commentator Wu Xuelan.
