Chen sheng
Recently, there have been many favorable policies and news in the real estate field, and there are also many discussions about the future development of real estate. This industry has indeed experienced some difficulties in a certain period of time, but it is largely staged and short-term. From the perspective and law of real estate history, the future of China real estate has great room for development.
At present, real estate accounts for about 7% of GDP, and the construction industry is only about 14%, which is lower than that of many countries. This means that there is still a lot of room for the development of the real estate service industry, which is the opportunity in the future. All kinds of real estate service industries, including financial leasing, real estate for subdivided tracks, space derivative services, stock renewal and leasing, brokerage, asset management, etc., still have great room for development, and even some tracks are in a state of short supply. The discussion on China real estate should not be limited to the balance between supply and demand, but also take into account the development space and opportunities of each track.
We can firmly believe in the growth of real estate and various derivative services, because the future of real estate will not stick to the current development model, but will be transformed into a new development model. So what is the new development model? The extensive development model of high scale, high leverage, high turnover and high debt in the past will develop into a new real estate model with product quality as the center, customer service as the core and people as the center. The new model requires us to return to the real estate products themselves. First-class housing enterprises that can lead the trend in the new era must have excellent quality, outstanding brand, modern governance and leading innovation.
The development of the real estate industry will never end. At present, it still maintains a trading demand of 10 trillion yuan, which is already a very large market. In addition, people’s pursuit for a better life and a green living environment is endless. The progress of science and technology, the improvement of aesthetics and the change of population structure can bring new opportunities to the development of real estate.
There may still be some difficulties to be solved now, but this is phased and cyclical. In 2022, the urbanization rate of China was 65.22%. According to the law of world development, before the urbanization rate reached 75%, almost no country had a sustained and irreversible bubble collapse in real estate. China’s urbanization development is expected to maintain an average annual growth range of 0.5% to 0.8%. Coupled with factors such as population migration between cities and economic recovery to drive residents’ housing consumption, the overall demand for medium and long-term rigid housing is sufficient. At the same time, there is a mismatch between the real estate inventory and the current demand in location, apartment type and quality, and the imbalance between supply and demand of high-quality housing and the structural shortage are prominent, which will also give birth to sustained incremental demand.
The demand for quality improvement will stimulate the new vitality of the market. Before 2000, there were 219,000 old urban residential areas in China, which were small in area, low in quality, poor in supporting facilities and inadequate in property management. Nearly 35% of families still lived in such a housing environment. The need to improve the living environment is still urgent. In addition, the peak circulation rate of stock houses in some countries is 5% to 6%, while in China it is only 1% to 2% at present. This means that we still have a huge room for improvement in this respect, and it is estimated that the average annual demand for improvement will exceed 8 million sets.
Relevant research shows that people have higher expectations and requirements for real estate products and services than before. The demand for healthy homes in the post-epidemic era and the evolution of new family structure mean that the industry has more possibilities for value-added. The birth of new demands and new functions, as well as the iteration of new technologies and new materials, will also bring continuous innovation vitality and development momentum to upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry, which is our confidence in the future.
At the same time, our real estate also contains strong structural growth potential. In the product-centered era, structural development opportunities mean that housing enterprises should make corresponding changes in time. The current development situation also confirms this point. Although some housing enterprises have experienced development difficulties, there are also a number of enterprises that insist on product quality to maintain steady development, and even some enterprises known for their projects have ushered in hot sales. It is undeniable that some old enterprises still face great pressure under the old model. On the one hand, we need to cut with the old model; On the other hand, it is necessary to build a new development track.
Housing enterprises should abandon the mentality of treating consumers as bill payers in the past, but take consumers as partners with common interests and adhere to people-oriented and customer-centered; We should return from the thinking of emphasizing finance and development to the thinking of specialty and customer-orientation, actively change the logic of enterprise management and real estate business development, build a product service system that starts with customer research and ends with customer experience, build a three-good system of good products, good services and good life, and run better service quality through the whole cycle of sales delivery. Only in this way can we always maintain a positive interaction with consumers and feed back the development momentum of enterprises with brand potential energy.
There are many possibilities for the future development of real estate by cutting the wrong model of the past and building a new development model. The key to the future development of housing enterprises is to adhere to the long-term goal, stabilize confidence, adhere to the people-oriented, product-oriented and service-oriented development model, and strive to create a good product, good community and good service. (The author is Dean of China Real Estate Data Research Institute) ▲
# Hundreds of New Earnings #
Reporting/feedback
关于作者